The month of October and the year of 1962. This was the time when the Communist government of China invaded India and occupied 38000sq km of land. Half a century later, today is the same time when tensions between developing economies are at their peak, and the slightest relaxation in military and diplomatic relations, will turn this tension into the last option of war. This can also be gauged from the fact that China has deployed HQ-9 air defence missile systems on LAC in addition to 60000 troops, besides making air strips and permanent bases at 14 locations. It is quite clear that the Chinese military does not want to go back. On the other hand, India has increasing its preparations fast forward and also tested 10 dangerous and nuclear powered missiles like Hyper Sonic TDV, BrahMos, Shourya, NGARM Anti Radar, Prithvi-II, SMART Torpedoes and Nirbhay for 35 consecutive days. In this unusual situation, countries aggrieved by China’s aggression are beginning to come to a stage today to remove China’s dependence on countries sovereignty and future defence techniques. With this, a new cold war has also started in the world, in which anyone can be defeated but the global scenario will surely become multilateral.
In this era, the organization whose framework is being set to stop China is not new. Its foundation was built in 2007 by the thinking of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, but it never reached its status under the fear and pressure of China. Since today’s world is in the grip of corona global pandemic and the economy collapses, taking advantage of this weakness Chinese President Xi Jinping not only ended Hong Kong‘s autonomy after decades, but has also started border disputes with Kyrgyzstan, Bhutan, Taiwan, Japan etc… That is why once again this Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) is back in its 2.0 version, which is not only completely anti-China but also pro-democracy, pro-free navigation and pro-cooperative initiatives. Today, the Quad is being discussed and equated with NATO, the strongest military organization in the world, which was established by the United States to surround the Soviet Union during the first Cold War. As a result, the USSR was broken into 15 parts without direct fight. Decades later, economy and military hegemony has again started the second cold war between the US and China. In such a situation, both countries are trying to bring countries around the world into their camps so as to weaken the military power of the opposing government.
The structure of the quad is being embodied in this context today, to end China’s monopoly through the BRI Project, South China Sea, 5G Technology, Rare Earth Elements and Cyber Security in the Indo-Pacific Ocean Region. But the question is that if India has a war with China in the near future, whether or not this Quadrilateral Security Dialogue will come with India’s support, and if it will come to what extent. Since this organization is based on the foundation of free and open maritime navigation between the seas, it is important to know whether this organization will be able to provide any military assistance even in land and border disputes, only after knowing that its hypothesis will be meaningful. Recently, the Chinese mouthpiece Global Times tried to entertain India in its article that it should not fall into the US travesty, because it would not come for India’s help during the war. And by the time they reach for help, the game will be over. These threats, of course define that China does not want to withdraw from the LAC. Indeed, China is well aware of how Trump administration works, and how incredible it is. So my guess is that if there is a military skirmish or war, the US will openly engage with India, it is very unlikely. I agree that India needs to have good relations with America, but it should not be directed against China. In this context, India should learn a lesson from the previous experiences of Pakistan and Iraq, that the United States has never been a trusted ally, and this has become more evident under Trump’s Presidency.
India will not be able to get any help other than surveillance from the US in the Quad; hence India wants to sign the last remaining foundational agreement of BECA as soon as possible. The talk about the security of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia in the South China Sea; Taiwan in the median line; Japan in the Senkaku Islands; and the Kyrgyzstan of entire Pamir plateau, of course its depends on the strength of the quad, which will not be possible before a decade. Recently, China unilaterally captured Hong Kong completely, but no one could spoil it. In Australia, China infiltrated its internal policy and politics to such an extent that Australia had to enact an anti-interference law to avoid this. Today the situation is that due to small countries, China is also failing the investigation of international organizations but no one is able to do anything. It is also important to know the relevance of the Quad, as India is already tied to a strategic partnership with the US, Australia and Japan. In addition, organizations such as SCO, RIC and BRICS are with China and engaged in trying to resolve the LAC dispute through diplomatic negotiations. Then why did it revive an organization which does not yet have any structure and headquarters?.. Recently, the US has talked about expanding the G7 with India as well as UK to build the Democracy-10; this discussion further provoked Chinese aggression, because the plan turned out to be hostile to President Xi Jinping’s dreams. There should also be a discussion in the context of the dispute with India, whether this aggression by China is due to the Quad or not. Because as India and America are getting closer, China is afraid of being sidelined and finding strong competitors as India in Asia. An important question is that when India and China are together in various organizations, then why did China show this aggression with India and what role did all these organizations play to end the dispute.
Speaking of conclusion, as the US elections come closer in these 15 days, the possibility of war will be in full swing. Because China wants to give a befitting reply to India through war, so that India removes Aksai Chin from its map and think before parallel stand with China. Therefore, this US election will determine the direction of India and the world. If Trump wins again, not only will there be global pressure on China to spread the pandemic, but President Xi Jinping’s lifetime power will also be in danger. Speaking of the Quad, it can be formally institutionalized within 5 years to include the anti-China countries of South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia so that it can be militarized in the ongoing Cold War. However, in the present context, the quad is not a solution but it will play the biggest role to increase India’s dominance in the Indian Ocean in future. At the moment, there is also the fear of how the world powers would react if China captured Taiwan after betraying the world fraternity in the context of Hong Kong. Because ironically, when the Cold War is in its infancy, nobody is able to do anything against China. So how will we be able to defeat China and liberate countries like Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang when China has become the most modern and powerful military in 2050?
19 October 2020
@Published :
1. #The_Hawk Newspaper, 16th October 2020, Friday, Saharanpur Edition, Digital page 👉http://www.thehawk.in/feature-posts/quad-20-the-context-of-india-explained-179392
2. #The_Hills_Times Newspaper, 19th October 2020, Monday, Assam Edition, Page 04 👉https://www.thehillstimes.in/featured/quad-2-0-the-context-of-india-explained/
